LI AUTO(HK:02015) Guolian Securities·2024-12-03 06:10Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [3][8]. Core Insights - In November 2024, the company delivered 48,740 vehicles, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.8%. The projected revenue for 2024-2026 is expected to be 147.3 billion, 205.4 billion, and 280 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.0%, 39.4%, and 36.3% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 8.53 billion, 14.24 billion, and 23.72 billion yuan, with growth rates of -27.1%, 67.0%, and 66.6% respectively. The EPS is projected to be 4.02, 6.71, and 11.18 yuan per share, with a 3-year CAGR of 40.6% [3][12]. Summary by Sections Delivery Performance - The company achieved a delivery of 48,740 vehicles in November 2024, marking an 18.8% increase year-on-year. Cumulatively, 442,000 vehicles have been delivered as of November 30, 2024. The company has maintained its position as the leading Chinese brand in the 200,000 yuan and above new energy vehicle segment for eight consecutive months [3][12]. Product and Technology Development - The company has accelerated its software capabilities with the AD Max version, which has been rolled out to all users of the AD Max platform. The penetration rate of the end-to-end + VLM system in tested cities has exceeded 50%. The demand for AD Max models has increased significantly, with over 70% of sales in models priced above 300,000 yuan and over 80% in models priced above 400,000 yuan [3][12]. Ecosystem and Infrastructure - As of November 30, 2024, the company has established 475 retail centers across 141 cities and 451 after-sales service centers covering 223 cities. The company has also deployed 1,135 charging stations and 5,680 charging piles nationwide, enhancing its ecosystem [3][12]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 147.3 billion, 205.4 billion, and 280 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 8.53 billion, 14.24 billion, and 23.72 billion yuan. The EPS is expected to grow to 4.02, 6.71, and 11.18 yuan per share over the same period [3][12].