M1口径调整解读：新口径M1与当下的经济基本面更贴切

Group 1: M1 Statistical Revision - The People's Bank of China will revise the M1 statistical scope starting from January 2025, incorporating personal demand deposits and non-bank payment institution reserves[2] - As of October 2024, the original M1 scale is 63 trillion yuan, while the new M1 scale is estimated to reach 105 trillion yuan, reflecting an increase of approximately 42 trillion yuan or 66.5%[3] - The new M1 will include M0, corporate demand deposits, unit demand deposits, personal demand deposits, and non-bank payment institution reserves, with respective scales of 12.2 trillion, 20.9 trillion, 30.3 trillion, 39.8 trillion, and 2.4 trillion yuan[3] Group 2: Economic Implications - The new M1 is expected to better reflect immediate consumption capacity and reduce volatility, enhancing its predictive power for economic growth and inflation trends[3] - The turning point for M1 occurred in October 2024, indicating a potential stabilization and recovery trend for the Producer Price Index (PPI) by the third quarter of 2025[4] - The M2-M1 differential continues to expand, suggesting a moderate inflation recovery rate, with the differential leading the GDP deflator by about one year[4] Group 3: Market Signals - The M2/M1 ratio showed a slight decline in the original calculation as of October 2024, while the new calculation remained stable, indicating a positive signal for the market[4] - The new M1's growth trend aligns closely with the original M1, indicating no significant divergence but a notable reduction in volatility[3] - Factors supporting the upward trend of M1 include improved real estate sales data and enhanced corporate expectations leading to increased liquidity[3]