瑞银-降级还是升级-洞察中国消费新趋势

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on various consumer categories in China, particularly in higher-tier cities, suggesting a potential downgrade in investment sentiment [1][2]. Core Insights - There is a softening in net upgrade intentions across consumer categories, especially in restaurants, coffee shops, healthcare, and makeup, while wellness categories like skincare and sports/fitness show resilience [1][3]. - Premiumization trends continue in sectors such as autos and high-end appliances, indicating sustained demand for luxury goods despite overall downgrading trends [1][3]. - Government policies aimed at supporting household incomes are expected to contribute to a gradual recovery in overall consumption, benefiting businesses aligned with evolving consumer preferences [1][5]. Summary by Sections Consumer Behavior Trends - The UBS Evidence Lab survey of 2,000 households reveals softening net upgrade intentions, particularly in higher-tier cities, with significant pressure on restaurants, coffee shops, healthcare services, and makeup [2][3]. - Wellness-related categories, such as skincare, remain strong, with 21% of households in high-tier cities and 11% in tier-three cities expressing a desire to upgrade their skincare products [3][4]. - Consumers prioritize value, with dining out and daily necessities favored for increased spending if incomes rise, while travel remains a priority for higher-income groups [7][8]. City Tier Insights - Upgrade intentions for travel are notably stronger in tier-three cities compared to top-tier cities, reflecting differing income levels and consumer confidence [6][8]. - The intent to upgrade is stronger in top-tier cities for high-end electronics and appliances, although lower-tier cities face more pressure [5][6]. Investment Implications - Investors should consider companies involved in wellness-related products, as these categories demonstrate resilience amidst broader economic pressures [5]. - The ongoing structural shift towards service-oriented expenditures among Chinese consumers could benefit firms offering experiential goods/services rather than purely tangible commodities [5]. - Despite general downgrading trends, certain segments like premium autos and appliances continue to exhibit strong demand, indicating potential opportunities within higher-end market niches [5][9].