傲基股份：首次覆盖：跨境电商龙头战略转向家具家居，成效显著

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company with a target price of RMB 19.23, equivalent to HKD 20.57 at the current exchange rate [4][23] Core Investment Thesis - The company is a leading online retailer specializing in home furnishing products, ranking first in China's B2C overseas e-commerce market for home furnishing by GMV in 2023 and fifth globally [2][21] - The company achieved revenue of RMB 8.68 billion in 2023, a 22.29% YoY increase, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching RMB 532 million, up 142.87% YoY [2][21] Competitive Advantages Supply Chain and Brand Portfolio - The company has a robust supply chain management system with 629 patents, 150 patent applications, and 172 software copyrights as of October 2024 [3][22] - It partners with 575 manufacturers and owns popular brands like ALLEWIE and IRONCK, with 11 brands exceeding RMB 100 million GMV in 2023 [3][22] - Six product categories ranked first on Amazon USA by GMV in 2023, with a return rate below 3.5% on all third-party platforms, among the lowest in the industry [3][22] Operational Excellence - The company ranks fifth globally in the B2C e-commerce market for home furnishing by GMV in 2023, with a 0.2% market share in the global B2C e-commerce market and 0.04% in the global home furnishing industry [8] - Revenue from Amazon, Walmart, and Wayfair platforms accounted for 53.8%, 9.8%, and 10.0% of total revenue in 2023, respectively [8] Logistics Solutions - The company operates 27 overseas warehouses with a total area exceeding 5.5 million square feet as of April 30, 2024 [9] - It completed over 610 million logistics solution orders in 2023, with a 95% on-time delivery rate for large and medium-sized products within 24 hours [9] - Its logistics subsidiary, Shenzhen Xiyou Smart Warehouse, ranks fourth in China's B2C export e-commerce logistics solutions by revenue in 2023, with a 1.2% market share [9] Financial Performance and Projections Historical Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a gross margin of 34.48% and a net profit margin of 5.99%, with sales, management, and financial expense ratios of 21.08%, 3.31%, and 0.71%, respectively [10] - Revenue grew by 22.3% YoY to RMB 8.68 billion in 2023, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 142.9% YoY to RMB 532 million [6][10] Future Projections - Revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 16.0%, 14.9%, and 12.7% from 2024 to 2026, reaching RMB 10.07 billion, RMB 11.58 billion, and RMB 13.05 billion, respectively [6][10] - Net profit is projected to be RMB 532 million, RMB 652 million, and RMB 724 million for 2024-2026, with growth rates of 0%, 22.5%, and 11.1%, respectively [4][6] - The gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 33.5% from 2024 to 2026 [6][10] Business Segment Analysis Home Furnishing Products - Revenue from home furnishing products is projected to grow at 19.9%, 16.6%, and 13.4% from 2024 to 2026, with a stable gross margin of 40.64% [10][14] Other Product Categories - Revenue from other categories, including power tools and consumer electronics, is expected to decline by 9.82%, 6.56%, and 4.61% from 2024 to 2026, with gross margins ranging from 31.56% to 32.16% [11][14] Logistics Solutions - Revenue from logistics solutions is projected to grow at 30.0%, 25.0%, and 20.0% from 2024 to 2026, with gross margins of 14.0%, 14.5%, and 14.5%, respectively [11][14] Valuation and Peer Comparison - The current closing price implies a PE of 9.1x and 7.4x for 2024 and 2025, respectively [4][23] - The target price of RMB 19.23 is based on a 15x PE valuation for 2024, compared to an average PE of 14.9x for peers like Leggett & Platt and Zuoan Technology [4][14][23]