稀土：历尽千帆，迎接新周期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the rare earths industry, indicating a recovery in prices and a favorable supply-demand balance [3]. Core Insights - Rare earth prices have bottomed out and are expected to rise steadily due to recovery in demand and production cost support [3]. - Supply constraints are tightening as domestic production growth slows and overseas output declines, with the implementation of the Rare Earth Management Regulations further enhancing supply control [3][19]. - Demand for rare earths is projected to grow, particularly in new energy vehicles, wind power, and robotics, with high-performance rare earth permanent magnet materials expected to see an annual growth rate of 17.2% [3]. - Inventory levels are decreasing in downstream sectors, while production costs, particularly for praseodymium and neodymium, are providing strong price support [3][77]. - Investment recommendations focus on leading rare earth companies and magnetic material producers, highlighting the strong resource barriers and stable market shares of domestic leaders [3]. Price Analysis - Rare earth prices have shown signs of recovery, with specific price trends indicating a rebound from previous lows [6][8]. Supply Analysis - The total control indicators for rare earth mining and separation in 2024 show a growth rate of 5.9% and 4.2% respectively, which is a significant slowdown compared to 2023 [14]. - The implementation of the Rare Earth Management Regulations is expected to improve the supply-demand balance by reducing non-compliant supply [19]. - Overseas production from major companies has not shown significant growth in the first three quarters of 2024, indicating a controlled supply environment [29]. Demand Analysis - The demand for rare earths is expected to rise in emerging sectors such as electric vehicles, wind energy, and robotics, with significant growth anticipated in the production of industrial and humanoid robots [3][43]. - The cumulative production of new energy vehicles in China is on the rise, further driving demand for rare earth materials [43]. Inventory and Cost Analysis - Downstream inventory levels have decreased year-on-year, indicating a recovery in demand [70]. - The cost of praseodymium and neodymium is providing a solid bottom support for prices, reflecting the high concentration and regulatory control in the rare earth industry [77]. Company Focus - The report highlights key players in the rare earth sector, recommending attention to Northern Rare Earth and China Rare Earth, which have strong resource advantages and stable market positions [3][84][88]. - The magnetic material producer, Kinglong Permanent Magnet, is noted for its stable growth in production and capacity expansion plans [91].