M1口径调整解读新口径M1与当下的经济基本面更贴切

Group 1: M1 Statistical Revision - The People's Bank of China will revise the M1 statistical scope starting January 2025, incorporating personal demand deposits and non-bank payment institution reserves[2] - As of October 2024, the original M1 scale is 63 trillion CNY, while the new M1 scale is estimated to reach 105 trillion CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 42 trillion CNY or 66.5%[3] Group 2: M1 Composition and Impact - The new M1 will include M0, corporate demand deposits, unit demand deposits, personal demand deposits, and non-bank payment institution reserves, with respective scales of 12.2 trillion CNY, 20.9 trillion CNY, 30.3 trillion CNY, 39.8 trillion CNY, and 2.4 trillion CNY[3] - The highest proportion in the new M1 is personal demand deposits, which will significantly influence M1's volatility in the future[3] Group 3: Economic Predictions - The new M1 is expected to better reflect immediate consumption capacity and has a significantly reduced volatility, enhancing its predictive power for economic growth and inflation trends[3] - The turning point for M1 occurred in October, suggesting a potential stabilization and upward trend for the Producer Price Index (PPI) by Q3 of the following year[4] Group 4: Inflation Indicators - The M2-M1 differential continues to expand as of Q3 2024, indicating a moderate potential for inflation recovery, though its sustainability remains to be observed[4] - The M2/M1 ratio shows a slight decline in the original calculation as of October 2024, while the new calculation remains stable, signaling a positive but uncertain trend[4]