2024年11月PMI点评：小企业“挤出效应”明显好转，强化政策落实与预期改善良性循环

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Insights - The manufacturing PMI for November is 50.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from October, marking three consecutive months of improvement[1] - The production index rose by 0.4 percentage points to 52.4%, while the new orders index increased by 0.8 percentage points to 50.8%, the first time it has entered the expansion zone since May[1] - The combined increase in production and new orders indices contributed approximately 0.3 percentage points to the overall PMI, indicating a favorable trend in manufacturing[1] Group 2: Small Enterprises and Economic Outlook - Small enterprises show significant improvement, with the "crowding out effect" alleviating under conditions of insufficient total demand[1] - The PMI for large enterprises decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 50.9%, indicating a slowdown in expansion, while small and medium enterprises' PMIs rose to 50.0% and 49.1%, respectively[1] - The overall economic outlook remains positive, supported by a package of policies aimed at high-quality development, particularly in the real estate sector, which is expected to enhance related industries[2] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Trends - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell by 0.2 percentage points to 50.0%, returning to the critical level after a slight increase in the previous month[2] - The construction sector's business activity index dropped to 49.7%, the first time below the critical point since February 2020[2] - Despite the decline in current activity, the business activity expectations index for non-manufacturing rose to 57.0%, indicating increased confidence among enterprises[2]