策略月报：港股当前走到哪一步了？

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that the decline in Hong Kong stocks in November was primarily due to Trump's election victory, which suppressed liquidity and risk appetite, while domestic fundamentals require time to improve [2][5] - The Hong Kong stock market exhibited a leading trend compared to the A-share market, with a rebound starting on August 5 and a subsequent correction beginning on October 8 [4][24] - Currently, Hong Kong stocks are in a high cost-performance range, with potential for significant upward movement as domestic policies may drive improvements in fundamentals [6][32] Group 2 - In November, global stock indices showed mixed performance, with Hong Kong stocks continuing to adjust, while the A-share market saw slight gains [3][18] - The leading sectors in the Hong Kong market for November were healthcare (1.0%), finance (0.8%), and telecommunications services (0.5%), while the worst-performing sectors included consumer staples (-5.1%), real estate (-4.5%), and utilities (-3.5%) [3][18] - The adjustment in the Hong Kong market was more pronounced than in the A-share market, with a cumulative decline of 7.5% from November 6 to November 29, compared to a slight drop of 1.8% in the A-share market during the same period [24][20] Group 3 - The tightening liquidity in the Hong Kong market was influenced by the strengthening of the US dollar and rising US Treasury yields following Trump's election, leading to increased pressure on the market [27][20] - Trump's policies have constrained risk appetite, with the risk premium for the Hang Seng Index rising from 7.35% on November 6 to 8.29% by November 29, indicating increased required returns for investors [28][20] - Current valuations of Hong Kong stocks are low, with the Hang Seng Index's PE ratio at 8.8 times and PB ratio at 0.91 times, both significantly below historical averages [30][33] Group 4 - The recent policy measures in China may signal a bottoming out of domestic policies, with early signs of improvement in macroeconomic data, such as a rise in manufacturing PMI and significant growth in exports and retail sales [32][34][36] - The market is expected to benefit from ongoing fiscal and monetary policy support, which could gradually restore fundamentals and provide support for Hong Kong stocks [32][6]