有色金属行业2025年度策略报告：新年启幕 欣然迎变

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the non-ferrous metals industry, particularly copper and aluminum, indicating a reasonable safety margin with current P/E ratios below median and average levels [3][5][71]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the copper industry is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, with inflation potentially driving up demand and prices [3][71]. - Aluminum prices are projected to strengthen due to supply constraints, although the increase may not reach historical highs [5][75]. - Gold prices are anticipated to be supported by inflation and geopolitical tensions, with a focus on undervalued large gold mining companies [6][4]. Summary by Sections 1. 2024 Review - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown strong performance, with all sub-sectors experiencing growth. Precious metals led the gains, followed by industrial metals [25][21]. 2. Copper: Supply-Demand Balance - Traditional demand for copper remains stable, with significant usage in the power sector (45%) and construction (9%). Emerging demand from renewable energy is expected to increase copper usage to over 20% by 2025 [40][58]. - The global refined copper production is projected to reach 2,734.1 million tons in 2024, with a slight surplus expected [71]. 3. Aluminum: Demand Growth - The aluminum sector is supported by stable demand from transportation, power, and construction, with production reaching 4,166.6 million tons in 2023 [75]. - The report anticipates that aluminum prices may strengthen due to supply constraints, with a focus on integrated companies in mining and processing [5][75]. 4. Gold: Inflation and Geopolitical Support - Gold prices are expected to remain strong due to inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainties, with a recommendation to focus on large mining companies with solid fundamentals [6][4].