中国银河：每日晨报-20241204

Group 1 - The new M1 metric is more aligned with the current economic fundamentals, reflecting immediate consumption capacity and reduced volatility, which enhances its predictive power for economic growth and inflation levels [2][10][9] - The M1 metric experienced a turning point in October, indicating a potential sustained upward trend, supported by improved real estate sales data and enhanced corporate expectations [10][2] - The new M1 is estimated to reach 105 trillion yuan, a 66.5% increase from the old metric, with significant contributions from personal demand deposits and non-bank payment institution reserves [9][10] Group 2 - The bond market is expected to remain cautious as it awaits policy direction from the upcoming central economic work conference, with a focus on the sustainability of economic data improvements [18][19] - The credit bond yields have generally declined due to favorable policies, with credit spreads narrowing compared to the previous month [18][19] - The convertible bond market showed a slight recovery in November, outperforming the underlying stocks, with expectations of structural improvements in earnings for sectors like automotive and telecommunications in 2024 [25][29] Group 3 - The number of companies surveyed increased to 415 this week, indicating a rise in institutional interest, particularly in sectors such as machinery, electronics, and pharmaceuticals [13][14] - The performance of surveyed stocks showed a strong recovery, particularly in the media, retail, food and beverage, and light industry sectors, with notable gains [14][13] - The overall performance of quantitative funds was positive, with various strategies showing median returns above 1%, indicating a favorable environment for active management [31][30]