2025宏观年度策略：穿越周期，行稳致远

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have weakened, and the risk of increased tariffs under the Trump administration poses constraints on China's monetary policy and exports[1] - Global inflation is expected to rise due to the impact of Trump's de-globalization policies, with the Fed's rate cuts in 2025 likely to be less than market expectations[1] - Domestic economic growth faces pressures from inventory, equipment, and real estate cycles, necessitating stronger policy measures to stabilize growth and mitigate risks[1] Policy Recommendations - A focus on "two new" initiatives (new infrastructure and new energy vehicles) is seen as the optimal solution for balancing growth and quality development in the current environment[1] - The central government's fiscal stimulus is expected to strengthen, with special bonds and targeted subsidies aimed at key industries such as transportation equipment and consumer electronics[1] - The combination of strong fiscal and loose monetary policies is anticipated to persist, enhancing the impact of central fiscal investments on economic growth[1] Market Insights - In the global asset landscape, the US economy is projected to outperform the Eurozone, potentially driving the US dollar index above 100 in 2025[1] - Domestic assets, particularly bonds and equities, are expected to offer better allocation value in a low-interest-rate environment, with structural opportunities in "two new" related sectors[1] - The anticipated long-term recovery cycle in China will favor bond assets due to sustained monetary easing and expectations of further declines in policy rates[1] Risks and Challenges - Increased external pressures and uncertainties in US-China and US-EU relations could further complicate the economic landscape[2] - The risk of a hard landing for the US economy and potential unexpected rate cuts by the Fed could disrupt China's monetary policy[2]