科技行业：美加大对华半导体行业出口限制和实体清单和我们的思考

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on domestic semiconductor equipment, suggesting that the trend of domestic substitution will continue [4] - A cautious stance is taken towards overseas semiconductor equipment due to potential demand exhaustion and moderate recovery in overall global semiconductor demand [4] Core Insights - The U.S. Department of Commerce has announced new export control regulations aimed at limiting China's development in artificial intelligence and high-end semiconductor sectors, affecting 24 types of semiconductor manufacturing equipment and 3 types of semiconductor development software tools [1][2] - The addition of 140 entries to the Entity List includes over 100 equipment manufacturers and 24 semiconductor wafer fabs, indicating a significant tightening of controls [1] - The impact on major equipment suppliers is considered limited, as domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers are actively seeking to acquire upstream suppliers, mitigating risks [2] Summary by Sections Semiconductor Equipment Impact - The report identifies that domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers are involved in various upstream supply chains, including electrical, electromechanical, instrumentation, and gas/liquid/vacuum systems [2] - The potential for domestic alternatives exists, and companies like North Huachuang are pursuing acquisitions to strengthen their supply chains [2] Memory Chips - The restrictions on HBM memory chips may accelerate the domestic substitution process, particularly for HBM2 series products [3] - The Entity List's new entries are fewer than previously expected, suggesting a consideration of the interests of overseas companies [3] - Domestic memory chip suppliers are likely to continue seeking domestic alternatives, with the key driver being the technological level of domestic semiconductor equipment [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on domestic semiconductor equipment companies such as North Huachuang and Zhongwei Company [4] - It predicts that global semiconductor equipment demand will remain flat in 2024, with modest growth of 1% and 2% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [4] Company Ratings - The report lists several companies with investment ratings, including: - SMIC (981 HK): Buy, target price of 32.00, potential upside of 21.2% [12] - AMD (AMD US): Buy, target price of 183.00, potential upside of 28.8% [12] - Zhaoxin Microelectronics (300782 CH): Buy, target price of 106.00, potential upside of 10.8% [12] - Weir Group (603501 CH): Buy, target price of 133.00, potential upside of 31.7% [12]