消费行业2025年展望：扩大内需势在必行

Group 1 - The consumer industry in China is experiencing a weak recovery trend in 2024, with consumer confidence remaining low due to a sluggish real estate market and unfavorable employment conditions [1][17][20] - The overall retail sales growth for social consumer goods in the first ten months of 2024 was only 3.5%, with essential consumption performing slightly better than discretionary consumption [20][25] - The report anticipates that expanding domestic demand will be the primary driver of economic growth in 2025, with the government expected to implement stronger policies to boost consumer confidence [2][17] Group 2 - The report identifies four key questions for stock selection in the consumer sector under the uncertainty brought by Trump's potential re-election, focusing on companies' ability to maintain strong overseas sales, cater to lower-tier market demands, benefit from domestic substitution trends, and demonstrate strong earnings growth certainty for 2025 [2] - Companies that can effectively innovate products and adapt marketing strategies to meet the needs of lower-tier market consumers are expected to capture greater market share [2][25] - The cosmetics industry is highlighted as particularly benefiting from domestic substitution trends, with local brands expected to gain market share due to better marketing capabilities and cost-effectiveness [2][25] Group 3 - The report notes that the consumer industry faces challenges such as declining sales volumes and average selling prices due to weakened consumer purchasing power [25][28] - Companies are responding to competitive pressures by increasing promotional efforts and introducing more low-priced products to attract cost-conscious consumers [31][32] - The dairy industry is specifically mentioned as experiencing overcapacity, leading to increased competition and pressure on profit margins [37][39]