11月市场热度延续，政策助力需求释放

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [7] Core Insights - The real estate market shows signs of recovery with policy support driving demand release, particularly in key cities. November marked the first month of positive year-on-year growth in new home sales for 2024 [11][21]. - The second-hand housing market continues to see a trend of price adjustments for volume, with significant growth in transaction volumes, especially in first-tier cities [11][30]. - The land market is experiencing a rebound in activity, with an increase in transaction premium rates and a decrease in the auction failure rate, indicating improved market conditions [11][41]. Sales Sector - Volume: From January to November 2024, the cumulative transaction area of commercial housing in 35 cities reached 136.21 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 22.42%, with the decline narrowing by 3.43 percentage points compared to the previous period. In November alone, the transaction area was 15.80 million square meters, showing a month-on-month increase of 20.68% and a year-on-year increase of 14.41%, marking the first positive growth of the year [11][21]. - Price: In November 2024, the average transaction price of new homes in 100 cities was 16,592 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.36% and a year-on-year increase of 2.40%. The average price of second-hand homes was 14,278 yuan per square meter, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.57% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.29% [30]. - Developers: The cumulative sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies from January to November 2024 was 371.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.86%, with the decline narrowing by 1.94 percentage points compared to the previous period. In November, the sales amount was 38.65 billion yuan, down 9.81% year-on-year [35][39]. Land Sector - Volume and Price: From January to November 2024, the cumulative transaction area of residential land in 300 cities was 25,308 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 27.39%, with the decline narrowing by 3.09 percentage points compared to the previous period. The average transaction floor price was 5,837 yuan per square meter, down 6.96% year-on-year [41][44]. - By Tier: In November, the average transaction floor price in high-tier cities increased, while the overall market still shows lower activity compared to the same period last year [41][44].