2025年寿险开门红仍有多重利好

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the insurance industry [7][65]. Core Insights - The sales environment for the 2025 insurance season is expected to be favorable due to positive factors on both the supply and demand sides. On the demand side, low risk appetite among residents will keep savings-type insurance products attractive. On the supply side, the competitive advantage of insurance products with guaranteed interest rates of 2.5% and 2.0% is expected to persist, supported by improved agent activity rates and productivity [2][41]. Summary by Sections 1. Importance of the Opening Sales Season - The opening sales season significantly contributes to annual performance, with January and Q1 premiums accounting for over 20% and 30% of annual totals, respectively. In 2023, major insurers had January premiums contributing 31.5% to 39.0% of their annual totals [11][21]. - The shift from "pre-collection" to "pre-recording" for policy underwriting is anticipated for 2025, influenced by regulatory guidance aimed at stabilizing business development [28][32]. 2. Favorable Factors for 2025 Opening Sales Season - Demand Side: Residents' low risk appetite favors savings-type insurance products due to their guaranteed returns [41][42]. - Supply Side: With declining deposit rates, insurance products like the 2.5% guaranteed increase whole life insurance and 2.0% participating insurance remain competitive. The improvement in agent productivity is also expected to support new policy sales [41][46]. - The NBV (New Business Value) is projected to achieve positive growth in 2025, supported by improved NBV margins due to regulatory guidance and product structure optimization [59][63]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong liability performance and better fundamentals, such as China Pacific Insurance, China Life, Ping An Insurance, New China Life, and China Re [65][68].