Leaderdrive(688017) 群益证券·2024-12-04 08:47Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 147 yuan [2][4][7] Core Views - The company is a leader in harmonic reducers and is expected to benefit from the recovery in industrial robot production and the upcoming mass production of humanoid robots [7][8] - The company's performance improved in Q3 2024 due to the recovery in the industrial robot market, with revenue increasing by 25.6% YoY and net profit increasing by 1.6% YoY [7] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growth opportunities in the humanoid robot market, with plans to expand production capacity through a 2 billion yuan private placement [8] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 0.8 billion yuan, 1.0 billion yuan, and 1.5 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with YoY growth rates of -9%, +30%, and +52% [4] - EPS is projected to be 0.45 yuan, 0.59 yuan, and 0.90 yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 273x, 210x, and 138x [4][6] - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 446 million yuan in 2024 to 663 million yuan in 2026, with operating costs increasing from 229 million yuan to 388 million yuan over the same period [14] Industry and Market Context - The industrial robot market showed signs of recovery in Q3 2024, with production increasing by 19.7%, 20.0%, and 22.8% YoY in July, August, and September, respectively [7] - The humanoid robot market is approaching a critical point for mass production, with companies like Tesla, Unitree, and XPeng introducing new models and deploying them in various industries [8] Company Fundamentals - The company's A-share price was 124.09 yuan as of December 3, 2024, with a market capitalization of 20.94 billion yuan [2] - The company's major shareholder, Zuo Jing, holds a 20.41% stake [2] - Institutional investors hold 11.0% of the company's A-shares, while general legal entities hold 11.2% [2]