2025年煤炭行业投资策略：煤价中枢预计稳定，焦煤中期需求韧性仍存

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, with a recommendation for specific companies benefiting from market coal increases and stable operations [4]. Core Viewpoints - The coal supply is expected to remain stable due to strict safety regulations affecting domestic production growth in 2024, with a recovery anticipated in 2025. The report highlights that both domestic and international coal supply will not see significant increases [3][4]. - Demand for thermal coal is projected to grow steadily, while coking coal may experience a rebound due to low inventory levels and potential government stimulus policies [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of Xinjiang's coal production, which is expected to play a crucial role in balancing supply and demand in the future [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Domestic Production and Supply - Domestic coal production is expected to recover in 2025 after a decline in 2024 due to safety inspections. The total coal production in China for 2024 is projected to be around 3.892 billion tons, with a year-on-year growth of 1.2% [8][10]. - The report notes that the production in Shanxi province will see a recovery, returning to levels close to 1.36 billion tons by 2025 [8][10]. - New coal production capacity is limited and primarily located in Xinjiang, with a total of approximately 26.2 million tons per year approved in recent projects [17]. 2. Demand Outlook - The demand for thermal coal is expected to remain stable, with a slight increase anticipated in 2025 due to macroeconomic stabilization and new coal-fired power installations [3][4]. - Coking coal demand is projected to rebound as inventory levels are low, and government policies aimed at stimulating growth may support price recovery [3][4]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends companies such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry for their high dividends and stable operations. It also suggests关注淮北矿业, 平煤股份, and 广汇能源 for their potential underestimation and responsiveness to government policies [4].