汽车行业一周一刻钟，大事快评（W084）：政策起效节奏

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the automotive sector [16]. Core Insights - The new vehicle replacement policy is expected to target new consumer groups, but demand will not surge quickly into the market. The policy's implementation requires consumer decision-making, and demand from new groups will take time to materialize. A gradual market recovery is anticipated after the Spring Festival [2][6]. - Quarterly sales growth for 2025 is projected to show a pattern of low opening, high peak, and gradual decline. The first quarter may be a significant off-season, but sales are expected to improve in the second quarter as consumers adapt to the policy. The third quarter may stabilize, while the fourth quarter could face pressure [3][7]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on domestic strong alpha manufacturers like BYD and overseas representatives like Great Wall Motors, as well as companies benefiting from the trend of smart technology [3][7]. Summary by Sections Policy Effectiveness - The new vehicle replacement policy will face new consumer groups, and demand will not quickly flood the market. The policy's implementation requires consumer decisions, and demand will take time to reflect in the market. A gradual recovery is expected post-Spring Festival [2][6]. Sales Growth Projections - Sales growth for 2025 is expected to follow a low opening, high peak, and gradual decline trend. The first quarter may be a clear off-season, but significant sales increases are anticipated in the second quarter, especially due to low base effects. The third quarter may normalize, while the fourth quarter could experience pressure [3][7]. Investment Recommendations - Investment analysis suggests focusing on two main lines: domestic strong alpha manufacturers and the trend of smart technology. Recommended companies include BYD, Great Wall Motors, and smart technology representatives like Xpeng Motors and Li Auto [3][7].