前瞻2025之一：后期重要会议与事件梳理

Group 1: Upcoming Meetings and Events - Key meetings such as the Political Bureau meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference are expected to set the tone for economic work in 2025, with significant policy signals anticipated[1] - Local two sessions are expected to provide clearer references for national economic growth targets for the upcoming year[1] - The early issuance of local special bond quotas is anticipated to boost infrastructure project progress[1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank's governor indicated a potential reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.25-0.5 percentage points by the end of the year, depending on market liquidity conditions[1] - The issuance of special government bonds to supplement commercial banks' capital is a key focus area for the market[1] Group 3: Economic Growth Targets - Historical data shows that local economic growth targets often provide insights into national GDP growth targets, with Beijing and Shanghai's targets closely aligned with national goals[14] - In recent years, Beijing's GDP growth targets have been set 0.5 percentage points lower than the national average, while Shanghai's targets have varied, sometimes exceeding national targets[14] Group 4: Special Bond Quotas - The theoretical upper limit for the early issuance of special bonds in 2025 is estimated at 2.34 trillion yuan, based on a projected total of 3.9 trillion yuan for new special bonds[11] - The early issuance of special bonds is seen as a critical indicator of fiscal policy strength and is expected to enhance infrastructure funding availability[11]