CRHIC(600528) 东方财富·2024-12-05 02:15Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leader in the tunnel boring machine (TBM) industry, with over 1,700 orders and more than 1,600 units delivered, achieving a tunneling mileage of over 5,000 kilometers. It holds a market share of over 60% in the domestic hydropower construction sector and approximately 85% in pumped storage power stations [1][4][127]. - The demand for tunnel boring machines is expected to grow, particularly in hydropower and mining sectors, driven by national strategies and infrastructure investments. The company is positioned to benefit from this growth due to its improved product structure and increased production of high-value TBM machines [1][4][10]. - The company is expected to return to a growth trajectory, benefiting from the high demand in hydropower and mining, as well as improvements in its overseas business and debt reduction policies [1][4][11]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a subsidiary of China Railway and specializes in high-end equipment manufacturing for tunnel engineering, with a strong market presence in TBM, railway switches, and steel structures [1][4][56]. Performance Analysis - The company's revenue grew from 17.9 billion yuan in 2018 to 30.07 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 10.9%. However, a decline of 5.6% was observed in the first three quarters of 2024 due to reduced domestic construction demand [1][4][59]. Market Demand - The market for TBMs is expanding, with a total market size of 24.3 billion yuan in 2022. The demand is shifting from traditional transportation projects to hydropower and mining applications, supported by government policies and infrastructure investments [1][4][74]. Product Structure Improvement - The company has improved its product structure, increasing the proportion of high-value TBM machines from 4.6% in 2015 to 7.3% in 2022. In 2023, the production of large-diameter TBMs increased by 69.7% [1][4][130]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to generate revenues of 29.498 billion yuan, 32.539 billion yuan, and 34.281 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.583 billion yuan, 2.044 billion yuan, and 2.263 billion yuan [4][155]. Valuation Analysis - As of November 22, 2024, the company's PE and PB ratios are 11.53x and 0.77x, respectively, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels [4][158]. Investment Recommendation - The report suggests that the company's value is currently underestimated, maintaining an "Accumulate" rating based on expected growth in demand for TBMs and specialized machinery in hydropower and mining sectors [4][160].