Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Aikang Medical (1789.HK) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 6.8, indicating a potential upside of 27% from the current price of HKD 5.4 [4][5]. Core Views - Aikang Medical, as a leading domestic orthopedic joint company, continues to demonstrate strong bidding performance in the ongoing national procurement of joint products, despite short-term industry disruptions due to anti-corruption measures. The company is expected to see improved visibility in revenue growth in 2025 as these risks clear [1][2]. - The long-term growth potential is supported by Aikang's focus on technological research and development, being the first in China to apply metal 3D printing in orthopedic implants. The company aims to leverage 3D printing, ICOS, and surgical robots to create a digital orthopedic platform, expanding its presence in the mid-to-high-end market [2][3]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 1,052 million in 2022 to RMB 1,990 million by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22% from 2023 to 2026. The expected revenue growth rates for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 19.3%, 24.5%, and 22.5%, respectively [3][14][97]. - The net profit is forecasted to increase from RMB 205 million in 2022 to RMB 399 million by 2026, with significant growth anticipated in 2025 [3][14][97]. - The report assigns a target price based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 22x for 2025E, aligning with the company's historical average [2][97]. Industry Overview - The orthopedic industry is currently facing short-term pressures due to anti-corruption measures, but it is expected to benefit in the long term from a large patient base, increasing surgical penetration rates, and domestic product substitution [1][16]. - The national procurement of orthopedic consumables has largely been implemented, with joint products being the first to undergo this process. The average price drop in the recent procurement round was around 6%, indicating a moderate impact on pricing [24][57]. - The domestic orthopedic implant market's localization rate is approximately 50%, with significant room for improvement as domestic brands gain market share through national procurement initiatives [27][29]. Product Development and Innovation - Aikang Medical has a comprehensive product layout in the joint category, having launched various generations of knee and hip joint replacement products since 2004. The company has also expanded its product line through strategic acquisitions, enhancing its technological capabilities and market reach [52][53]. - The introduction of the ICOS platform allows for customized orthopedic solutions, which is expected to drive sales in the mid-to-high-end market segment [62][64]. International Expansion - Aikang Medical employs a dual-brand strategy with Aikang and JRI in overseas markets, focusing on cost-effectiveness and stable product quality. The company aims to increase its overseas revenue contribution from 19% in 1H24 to over 30% in the medium to long term [93][94].
爱康医疗：成长逻辑，数字骨科+国际化打开发展空间