深挖宏观数据系列之三：如何理解城镇就业和GDP之间的关系？

Group 1: Employment and GDP Relationship - Urban new employment is a key economic and social development goal in China, with a target of over 12 million new urban jobs in 2024[9] - Each 1% increase in GDP corresponds to approximately 2 million new urban jobs during the 13th Five-Year Plan period[27] - The relationship between net increase in urban employment and GDP growth is more stable than that of urban new employment[3] Group 2: Changes Post-2020 - The employment elasticity (1% GDP growth corresponding to urban employment growth) decreased from 0.4 (2002-2019) to 0.2 (2020-2023)[41] - The average net increase in urban employment from 2020 to 2023 was 446, with an elasticity coefficient of 95, deviating from the previous range of 130-170[37] - The second industry, being capital-intensive, has less impact on employment growth compared to the third industry, affecting the GDP-employment relationship[44] Group 3: Statistical Differences - Urban new employment figures are based on government registrations, while net increase in urban employment is derived from statistical sampling, leading to potential discrepancies[15] - In 2022, urban employment reached 459 million, with a new employment figure of 12.06 million, indicating a significant divergence[15] - The increasing fluidity of job positions has widened the gap between urban new employment and net increase in urban employment[16]