Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the company [2][4] Core Views - The company maintains a positive store expansion pace, focusing on mid-to-high-end brands, increasing penetration in lower-tier cities, and enhancing business travel cooperation and member loyalty [4] - Domestic RevPAR is under pressure due to a high base effect from the previous year, with OCC showing resilience but ADR declining significantly [4] - The company expects 2024E/2025E/2026E revenues of 23.7/25.8/28.0 billion RMB, with YoY growth of 8.2%/9.1%/8.3%, and net profits of 3.7/4.4/4.8 billion RMB, with YoY changes of -9.3%/+17.4%/+11.2% [4] - The current stock price corresponds to 2024E/2025E/2026E P/E ratios of 19/16/15x [4] Financial Performance - 2024Q3 revenue reached 6.44 billion RMB, up 2.4% YoY, with domestic self-operated, domestic franchised, overseas self-operated, and overseas franchised revenues at 2.461, 2.568, 1.229, and 0.034 billion RMB, respectively [4] - Adjusted EBITDA for 2024Q3 was 2.11 billion RMB, down 9.5% YoY, with domestic and overseas segments contributing 2.09 and 0.02 billion RMB, respectively [4] - Adjusted EBITDA margin was 32.8%, down 4.3 ppts YoY and 0.4 ppts QoQ [4] - Adjusted net profit was 1.37 billion RMB, down 10.8% YoY [4] Operational Metrics - Domestic RevPAR, ADR, and OCC for 2024Q3 were 256 RMB, 301 RMB, and 84.9%, down 8.1%, 7.0%, and 1.0 ppts YoY, respectively [4] - Overseas RevPAR, ADR, and OCC for 2024Q3 were 82 EUR, 117 EUR, and 69.8%, up 3.7%, 2.5%, and 0.8 ppts YoY, respectively [4] - The company opened 790 new domestic stores in 2024Q3, with the full-year store opening guidance raised from 2,200 to 2,400 stores [4] - Total store count reached 10,845 by the end of 2024Q3, with over 800 new contracts signed during the quarter [4] Financial Projections - 2024E/2025E/2026E revenues are projected at 23.7/25.8/28.0 billion RMB, with YoY growth of 8.2%/9.1%/8.3% [5] - 2024E/2025E/2026E net profits are projected at 3.7/4.4/4.8 billion RMB, with YoY changes of -9.3%/+17.4%/+11.2% [5] - 2024E/2025E/2026E EBITDA is projected at 6.78/7.51/8.17 billion RMB, with YoY changes of -0.8%/+10.8%/+8.7% [5] - 2024E/2025E/2026E EPS is projected at 1.16/1.37/1.52 RMB [5]
华住集团-S：保持积极的开店节奏