医药生物行业2025年度策略：2025年医药生物板块的三点思路

Investment Rating - The report rates the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry as "Outperforming the Market" for 2025 [1]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector is expected to face pressure in 2024 but shows promise for recovery in 2025, with many products entering a price stabilization phase after years of centralized procurement [1][2]. - The demand for CXO and research services is anticipated to gradually recover alongside the procurement of medical equipment, driven by a rebound in funding conditions [2]. - Innovation remains a key focus, with increased R&D investments from leading companies aiming to explore new growth avenues [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance and Outlook - The pharmaceutical sector experienced a decline of 11.46% in the first half of 2024, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 23.38 percentage points [1][22]. - As of November 26, 2024, the overall valuation of the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector stands at 26.93x, which is still relatively low compared to 2021 levels [1][27]. 2. Key Strategies for 2025 - Stable Growth in Essential Sectors: The report highlights that essential sectors post-centralized procurement still possess robust growth potential, with a focus on medical devices and pharmaceuticals [2][3]. - Investment and Fiscal Policy Changes: The report suggests that improvements in investment conditions and fiscal policies will likely lead to a recovery in the CXO and medical equipment sectors [2][3]. - Focus on Innovation: The report emphasizes the importance of innovation, with companies increasing R&D investments and exploring new technologies [2][3]. 3. Subsector Analysis - Medical Devices: The impact of centralized procurement is gradually diminishing, and the sector is expected to return to stable growth [3]. - CXO Services: The recovery of domestic CROs is a focal point, with potential for growth as investment conditions improve [3]. - Innovative Pharmaceuticals: Continued policy support for innovation and the potential for international expansion are highlighted as key growth drivers [3]. - Traditional Chinese Medicine: The report suggests monitoring future policy support for this sector [3]. - Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients: The report notes that risks are clearing, and new product growth is expected [3]. - Healthcare Services: There remains long-term growth potential in this area [3]. - Retail Pharmacies: The sector is currently influenced by pricing policies, emphasizing the importance of channel capabilities [3].