年度投资策略：2024年A股市场回顾与2025年投资策略展望

Market Review - The major indices showed strong performance in 2024, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 11.82%, the CSI 300 Index up by 14.15%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 11.41%, the ChiNext Index up by 17.59%, and the SSE 50 Index up by 12.84% [21] - Non-bank financials, banking, and communications sectors led the gains, with increases of 34.59%, 25.97%, and 23.40% respectively, while sectors like pharmaceuticals, agriculture, and food & beverage declined by -9.29%, -7.80%, and -6.90% respectively [21] - The non-bank financial sector was driven by supportive policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and the study of stabilization funds, while the banking sector benefited from low valuations and high dividend yields [21] - The communications sector performed well due to the rapid development of digital economy and AI, with a year-on-year net profit growth of 8.48% in the first three quarters [21] Market Liquidity - The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets in 2024 was 9974.83 billion yuan, a 14.08% increase compared to 2023 [34] - The margin trading balance on the Shanghai Stock Exchange reached 9432.54 billion yuan, up 13.49% from the beginning of the year, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange margin balance was 8812.97 billion yuan, up 17.09% [34] - IPO activity declined significantly, with only 89 companies listed in 2024, raising 580.48 billion yuan, compared to 313 companies and 3565.39 billion yuan in 2023 [34] - Refinancing activities also dropped sharply, with equity refinancing down 75.73% and convertible bond financing down 68.08% compared to 2023 [35] Market Valuation - The Shanghai Composite Index's P/E ratio was 14.36x, at the 28.79% percentile historically, while the P/B ratio was 1.32x, at the 26.11% percentile, indicating reasonable valuations [26] - The ChiNext Index's P/E ratio was 34.27x, at the 14.34% percentile, and the P/B ratio was 4.12x, at the 19.53% percentile, also suggesting reasonable valuations [26] - Sectors like steel, real estate, and building materials had high P/E percentiles due to declining earnings, while utilities, food & beverage, and social services had low P/E percentiles due to stable earnings but significant price declines [26] Institutional Holdings - At the end of Q3 2024, institutional holdings of A-shares totaled 43.76 trillion yuan, with banks, non-bank financials, and food & beverage sectors holding the largest market values at 6.18 trillion yuan, 3.59 trillion yuan, and 3.54 trillion yuan respectively [31] - The proportion of institutional holdings in the free float market declined, with sectors like social services, light manufacturing, and retail seeing smaller declines, while construction, electronics, and non-ferrous metals saw larger declines [31] M&A and Restructuring - M&A activity in 2024 increased slightly, with 107 M&A events recorded, driven by supportive policies encouraging companies to optimize and strengthen through M&A [43] - The main reasons for M&A included horizontal integration (30%), strategic integration (11%), and asset adjustments (11%), with most M&A deals involving share issuance for asset purchases or agreement acquisitions [46][48] - Private enterprises led M&A activity, with 59 deals, followed by local state-owned enterprises (31 deals) and central state-owned enterprises (9 deals) [49] New Productive Forces - Low-altitude economy is a key focus, with China's low-altitude economy exceeding 5000 billion yuan in 2023 and expected to reach 2 trillion yuan by 2030 [53] - Solid-state batteries are gaining traction, with major battery manufacturers like CATL and Huawei accelerating R&D, offering advantages such as higher energy density and faster charging [64] - Autonomous driving is poised for rapid growth, with policies supporting the industry and domestic companies like Baidu reporting significant increases in autonomous driving orders [67] Undervalued State-Owned Enterprises - As of November 29, 2024, there were 58 "undervalued" state-owned enterprises (SOEs) with P/B ratios below 1, primarily in sectors like steel, building materials, and banking [68] - Regulatory policies are pushing for SOEs to improve their valuations, with requirements for undervalued companies to disclose plans for valuation enhancement [68]