家用电器行业深度：从政策红利期和实际效果的预测角度-从中日家电政策的历史复盘，我们能总结出什么？

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating based on the analysis of policy benefits and actual effects in the home appliance industry [3]. Core Insights - Historical analysis of China's home appliance stimulus policies reveals significant impacts on sales, particularly through the "old-for-new" policy, which has shown a clear correlation with real estate cycles [5][11]. - The current round of policies is expected to last at least until 2025, with projected sales growth effects exceeding 15% [5][12]. - The report highlights the strong sales performance of major home appliance categories, with online sales growth of 70.3% and offline growth of 63.1% during the recent promotional period [6][10]. Summary by Sections Historical Review of Policies - The report reviews three major historical policies: "Home Appliances to the Countryside" (2007), "Energy-Saving Benefits" (2009), and "Old-for-New" (2009), noting their significant effects on sales and market penetration [11][59]. - The "Old-for-New" policy saw a growth rate of 27%, 18%, 3%, and 9% from 2007 to 2010, significantly higher than the years before the policy [11][59]. Current Policy Analysis - The current "Old-for-New" policy is expected to drive a growth rate of over 30% in replacement volumes, with air conditioning sales projected to increase by approximately 5% in 2024 and 16% in 2025 [5][12]. - The report emphasizes that the ongoing policy will likely stimulate demand in white goods and cleaning appliances, with notable sales increases in categories like air conditioners and refrigerators [6][10]. Comparative Analysis - A comparison with Japan's environmental incentive system indicates that similar policies can effectively boost penetration rates and replacement volumes [4][11]. - The report suggests that Japan's experience with environmental incentives provides valuable insights for the effectiveness of China's current policies [4][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the white goods sector, such as Midea, Haier, Gree, and Hisense, as well as cleaning appliance companies like Roborock and Ecovacs, due to their expected strong performance under the current policy environment [6][10].