摩根士丹利-社会感知指数再度下降，建议启动第二轮刺激措施

Industry Overview - The sentiment tracker indicates weakening momentum in both the real estate and stock markets, with underperformance in service consumption [2] - The Social Dynamics Indicator (SDI) has softened again in Q4 after stabilizing in Q3, reflecting social impacts from persistent deflationary pressures amid insufficient demand stimulus [2] - Export front-loading shows early signs, with China's seasonally adjusted export orders PMI rising for the first time in four months in November, up 0.8 percentage points [2] Real Estate Market - Real estate market momentum has begun to weaken, with housing transaction volumes declining more than seasonally since mid-November [2] - While secondary home prices in major cities maintained a 0.5% month-on-month growth for the second consecutive month in November, construction PMI fell below 50 for the first time (excluding the COVID-19 outbreak in February 2020) [2] - Infrastructure capital expenditure remains resilient with civil engineering PMI above 52, but real estate capital expenditure is expected to decline further [2] Consumption Trends - Auto sales growth improved further in November, benefiting from consumer trade-in programs and new electric vehicle launches [2] - Seasonally adjusted online home appliance sales declined month-on-month despite policy support, possibly due to earlier-than-usual Double 11 promotions in October [2] - Consumption-related services PMI generally softened in November, indicating weak household consumption willingness amid declining employment and income [2] Stock Market Sentiment - A-share investor sentiment continues to decline, with accelerated earnings downgrades and heightened geopolitical and trade concerns [2] - The People's Bank of China's market stabilization measures (swap and relending programs) remain modest, with only about 10% utilization of the 800 billion yuan quota so far [2] Economic Indicators - China's manufacturing PMI for new export orders (seasonally adjusted) showed improvement, reaching 44-46-42-40-50-48-52-54 [5] - The construction PMI fell below 50 for the first time (excluding the COVID-19 outbreak in February 2020) [7] - Used car sales showed a weekly month-on-month change (4WMA) of -30% to 50% [9] Automotive Sector - CPCA passenger car sales in South Australia reached 1,000-1,200-1,400-1,600-1,800-2,000-2,200-2,400-2,600 thousand units [11] Home Appliance Sector - Online home appliance sales in November reached 500-700-900-1,100-1,300-1,500-1,700-1,900-2,100 thousand units [14]