摩根士丹利-社会感知指数再度下降，建议启动第二轮刺激措施 ​​​

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating, but it highlights key trends and challenges in various sectors such as property, exports, and consumption [1][4][6] Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that a second round of stimulus is necessary due to fading momentum in the property and stock markets, as well as underperforming service consumption [1] - The Social Dynamics Indicator (SDI) softened again in Q4 2024, indicating the social impact of deflationary pressures and insufficient demand stimulus [1] - Export front-loading is observed, with China's export order PMI rising by 0.8 percentage points in November 2024, despite subdued PMIs in developed markets and softening Korean exports [1] - The property market momentum has started to decline, with secondary home prices in major cities showing a 0.5% month-on-month increase but transaction volumes softening more than seasonally since mid-November [1] - Construction PMI dipped below 50 for the first time (excluding the Covid outbreak in February 2020), suggesting a further decline in property capital expenditure [1] - Consumption remains mixed, with auto sales growth improving in November due to trade-in programs and new EV models, but online home appliance sales dropping despite policy support [1] - A-share investor sentiment continued to decline, with downward earnings revisions accelerating and rising geopolitical and trade concerns [1] Sector-Specific Analysis Property Market - Secondary home prices in major cities showed a 0.5% month-on-month increase for the second consecutive month, but transaction volumes have softened more than seasonally since mid-November [1] - Construction PMI fell below 50 for the first time (excluding the Covid outbreak in February 2020), indicating a potential decline in property capital expenditure [1] Exports - China's export order PMI rose by 0.8 percentage points in November 2024, marking the first increase in four months, likely due to export front-loading demand amid potential further US tariffs [1] Consumption - Auto sales growth improved further in November, supported by consumer goods trade-in programs and the launch of new EV models [1] - Online home appliance sales dropped in November despite policy support, likely due to demand being front-loaded by the earlier-than-usual "Double 11" sales promotion in October [1] - Consumption-related service PMIs softened broadly in November, indicating weak household appetite amid job and income uncertainties [1] Stock Market - A-share investor sentiment continued to decline, with downward earnings revision breadth accelerating and rising geopolitical and trade concerns [1] - The People's Bank of China's market stabilization programs have seen modest support, with only about 10% usage of the RMB 800 billion quota thus far [1] Construction Sector - Construction PMI dipped below 50 for the first time (excluding the Covid outbreak in February 2020), defying resilient infrastructure capital expenditure amid policy support [1] Online Sales - Online sales of home appliances softened in November, with seasonally adjusted month-on-month sales dropping despite policy support [1][8] Hotel Industry - Hotel demand remains subpar, with weekly RevPAR indexed to 2019 trending down in September before policy interventions and reaching a new low since reopening [9]