美国11月劳动数据解读：劳动市场还在弱化，12月可以继续降息

Employment Data Summary - Non-farm payrolls increased by 227,000 in November, slightly above the Bloomberg median forecast of 220,000, indicating a rebound after disruptions from extreme weather and strikes[3] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.246%, slightly higher than expected, with the labor force participation rate decreasing to 62.5%[11] - Household survey data showed a decline in total employment by 355,000, with part-time and full-time jobs both decreasing[4] Labor Market Dynamics - The increase in unemployment was driven by a rise in non-temporary unemployment, with 160,000 more unemployed individuals, bringing the total to 7.068 million[17] - The labor market continues to show signs of weakening, with household employment data suggesting a more reliable trend than the volatile non-farm payrolls[4] - The average hourly wage growth remained resilient, with a month-on-month increase of 0.37% and a year-on-year increase of 4.03%[10] Market Reactions and Projections - Following the labor data release, U.S. stock markets opened higher, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both rising; the 10-year Treasury yield fell by 1.8 basis points to 4.167%[19] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December rose to 86%, with expectations for three rate cuts in 2025[19] - The Federal Reserve is expected to proceed with a 25 basis point cut in December, despite the mixed labor data[5]