宏观和大类资产配置周报：持续看好风险资产价格表现

Macroeconomic Overview - The report maintains a positive outlook on risk asset price performance, with the asset allocation hierarchy being equities > commodities > bonds > cash[1] - The People's Bank of China is expected to continue a supportive monetary policy, with potential adjustments to the reserve requirement ratio by 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points by year-end[3] Asset Performance Review - The CSI 300 Index rose by 1.44% this week, while the CSI 300 futures increased by 1.49%[2] - Coal futures fell by 6.01%, and iron ore futures remained flat; the yield on ten-year government bonds decreased by 7 basis points to 1.95%[2] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests an overweight position in equities, focusing on the implementation of incremental policies, while bonds and cash are underweighted due to potential short-term impacts from the equity-bond relationship[4] - The manufacturing PMI index has shown an upward trend for three consecutive months, boosting confidence in economic growth for Q4 2024 and 2025[3] Risk Factors - Global inflation is declining slowly, and there is uncertainty regarding the pace of economic slowdown in Europe and the U.S.[3] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the implementation of fiscal policies and the potential adjustments to the economic growth target for 2025[3]