中央经济工作会议前瞻：坚定信心，主动作为

Economic Growth and Goals - The central economic work conference is expected to maintain a 5% economic growth target for 2025, emphasizing the importance of stabilizing growth, employment, and expectations[2] - To achieve the goal of doubling GDP by 2035, an average annual GDP growth rate of 4.7% is required during the 14th to 16th Five-Year Plans[2] Fiscal Policy - Fiscal spending growth is projected to be around 5% for 2025, with a narrow deficit ratio expected to exceed 3.5%[2] - The issuance of special bonds is anticipated to increase to approximately 4.5 trillion yuan, with long-term special government bonds reaching 2 trillion yuan[2] Monetary Policy - The central bank is expected to maintain a supportive monetary policy stance, with a potential reserve requirement ratio reduction of 100 to 150 basis points in 2025[3] - The cumulative reduction in policy interest rates may reach 20 basis points, with the 5-year LPR expected to decrease by 40 to 60 basis points[3] Domestic Demand and Consumption - Policies to encourage consumption will be strengthened, with a focus on expanding the scope of the "old for new" consumption policy in 2025[3] - Infrastructure investment, particularly in new infrastructure and urban renewal, will be prioritized to stimulate domestic demand[3] Industrial Development - Emphasis will be placed on fostering new productive forces and creating self-controlled industrial and supply chains through technological innovation[4] - Key industries such as integrated circuits and advanced materials will receive targeted support to enhance supply chain resilience[4] Real Estate Market - The plan includes the construction of 1 million urban village and dilapidated housing renovations to stabilize land and housing prices[9] - Local government special bonds are expected to support land acquisition and housing stock, potentially reaching a scale of trillions of yuan[9] Social Welfare and Employment - Initiatives to improve social welfare, including the establishment of a childbirth subsidy system, will be implemented to address public concerns[9] - The government will prioritize high-quality employment as a key economic and social goal, particularly for university graduates[9] Reform Measures - Accelerating the implementation of reform measures proposed in the third plenary session will be crucial for economic development and boosting expectations[9] - Reforms in the fiscal and tax system will aim to reshape local economic development incentives and promote effective transitions from "land finance" to "new productive forces"[9]