石油化工行业周报：OPEC推迟增产决策支撑短期油价走势，看好明年长丝金三银四景气修复

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the petrochemical industry, particularly for the polyester sector in the upcoming months [3][6]. Core Insights - OPEC's decision to delay the exit from production cuts supports short-term oil price stability, with expectations for recovery in the polyester market during the first half of next year [3][6]. - The report highlights a projected increase in polyester filament capacity of 1.15 million tons, representing a 3% growth, with most new capacity expected to come online in the latter half of next year [3][13]. - The upstream sector shows a mixed performance, with Brent crude oil prices declining to $71.12 per barrel, while the U.S. oil rig count increased slightly [3][24][33]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil futures closed at $71.12 per barrel, down 2.50% from the previous week, while NYMEX futures fell 1.18% to $67.20 per barrel [3][24]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 5.072 million barrels to 423 million barrels, which is 5% lower than the five-year average [3][25]. - The number of active U.S. oil rigs increased by 7 to 589, although this is a year-on-year decrease of 3 rigs [3][33]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products decreased to $10.42 per barrel, while the U.S. gasoline-WTI spread fell to $12.78 per barrel, below the historical average of $24.92 per barrel [3][24]. - The report anticipates gradual improvement in refining profitability as economic recovery progresses [3][16]. Polyester Sector - PTA prices have been declining, with the average price in East China at 4,731.60 CNY per ton, down 0.48% week-on-week [3][16]. - The polyester filament price spread has narrowed, indicating a challenging market environment, but there are signs of improvement in demand as the industry approaches the peak season [3][13][16]. - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co., Ltd. [3][16]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring high-quality refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong due to favorable tax reforms and improving cost structures [3][16]. - It also highlights the potential for growth in the polyester sector, particularly for companies like Tongkun Co., Ltd., as demand is expected to improve [3][16].