中央经济工作会议前瞻：坚定自信，主动作为

Economic Growth and Goals - The central economic work conference is expected to maintain a 5% economic growth target for 2025, addressing various contradictions and issues during development[2] - To achieve the goal of doubling the economic total or per capita GDP by 2035, the average GDP growth rate during the 14th to 16th Five-Year Plan periods needs to reach 4.7%[2] Fiscal Policy - Fiscal spending growth is projected to be around 5% for 2025, with a narrow deficit ratio expected to exceed 3.5%[2] - The issuance of special bonds is anticipated to increase to approximately 4.5 trillion yuan, with long-term special government bonds reaching 2 trillion yuan[2] Monetary Policy - The central bank is likely to maintain a supportive monetary policy stance, with a potential reserve requirement ratio reduction of 100 to 150 basis points in 2025[3] - The cumulative reduction in policy interest rates may reach 20 basis points, with the 5-year LPR expected to decrease by 40 to 60 basis points[3] Domestic Demand and Consumption - Promoting consumption is identified as a key strategy for expanding domestic demand, with policies to support the replacement of old consumer goods expected to continue and expand in 2025[4] - Infrastructure investment, particularly in new infrastructure and urban renewal, is set to be prioritized to stimulate economic activity[4] Industrial Development - Emphasis on cultivating new productive forces and creating self-controlled industrial and supply chains through technological innovation[4] - Key industries such as integrated circuits and advanced materials will receive targeted support to enhance supply chain resilience[4] Real Estate Market - The plan includes the construction of 1 million urban village and dilapidated housing renovations, with local government special bonds expected to support land acquisition and property storage[9] - Policies to stabilize land and housing prices will be intensified to improve cash flow for real estate companies[9] Social Welfare and Employment - Initiatives to establish a birth-friendly society and implement subsidies for multi-child families are planned to address demographic challenges[9] - The government aims to prioritize high-quality employment as a key economic and social goal, particularly addressing youth unemployment[9] Reform Measures - Accelerating the implementation of reform measures proposed in the third plenary session to stimulate development and enhance expectations[9] - The focus will be on fiscal and tax reforms to reshape local economic incentives and promote effective transformation from "land finance" to "new productive forces"[9]