黑色周报：宏观冷暖仍不定，基本面压力上升

Supply and Demand Analysis - Daily average pig iron production in October was approximately 2.27 million tons, up 1.4% year-on-year and 1.8% month-on-month[9] - Daily average crude steel production in October was about 2.64 million tons, up 2.9% year-on-year and 2.7% month-on-month[9] - Total inventory of five major steel products reached 11.6 million tons, with rebar inventory at 4.43 million tons and hot-rolled coil inventory at 3.06 million tons[1] Market Trends - Short-term market sentiment may improve due to potential macroeconomic recovery, but fundamental pressures are increasing[1] - Steel demand is expected to weaken, particularly in construction steel as the sector enters a low-demand season[15] - Speculative demand remains cautious, impacting overall market dynamics[53] Price Projections - Rebar (RB2501) is expected to stabilize around 3,300 RMB, while hot-rolled coil (HC2505) is projected to return to a premium of about 150 RMB[3] - Iron ore (I2501) is anticipated to maintain around 800 RMB, with a low probability of dropping below 750 RMB[21] - Coking coal (JM2501) is expected to remain above 1,100 RMB, with a small chance of falling below this level[27] Cost and Profitability - The complete cost of Tangshan steel billets is approximately 3,096 RMB[1] - Steel mills are experiencing shrinking profits, leading to reduced production enthusiasm[1] - The overall market sentiment is expected to remain weak due to high inventory levels and cautious speculative behavior[27]