海外经济政策跟踪：美联储降息节奏或放缓

Group 1: Global Asset Performance - Major stock markets in key economies rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Hang Seng Index, and Nikkei 225 each increasing by 2.3%, while the S&P 500 rose by 1.0%[1] - IPE Brent crude oil futures fell by 2.6%, and the S&P-Goldman Commodity Index and London Gold Spot both decreased by 0.7%[1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield declined by 3 basis points to 4.15%, while domestic 10Y government bond futures rose by 0.5%[1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - In November, the U.S. added 227,000 non-farm jobs, significantly higher than October's 36,000 and exceeding market expectations of 220,000[17] - The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, slightly above the expected 4.1%[17] - The ISM Manufacturing PMI increased by 1.9 to 48.4, surpassing the market expectation of 47.6, while the Non-Manufacturing PMI fell by 3.9 to 52.1[20] Group 3: Inflation and Interest Rate Expectations - As of December 6, the 5-year U.S. inflation expectation was 2.31%, down 2 basis points from the previous week, while the 10-year expectation fell to 2.24%[25] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December rose to 86.0%, up from 66.0% the previous week[25] - The total expected rate cut for 2025 increased from 50 basis points to 75 basis points, with cuts anticipated in March, June, and December[25] Group 4: European Economic Overview - The Eurozone PPI year-on-year decline narrowed to -3.2% in October, while the unemployment rate remained low at 5.9% for the EU and 6.3% for the Eurozone[30] - Retail sales growth in the Eurozone fell to 1.9% year-on-year in October, down 1.1 percentage points from September but still above market expectations[30] Group 5: Central Bank Policies - Multiple Federal Reserve officials support a rate cut in December, but some suggest a cautious approach to the pace of cuts moving forward[35][36] - The European Central Bank may also cut rates in December, but the pace is expected to be moderate[37] - The Bank of Japan has not ruled out the possibility of rate hikes, depending on economic data[37]