11月物价数据解读：稳增长政策效果初显带动PPI环比转涨

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In November, the CPI decreased by 0.6% month-on-month (previous value: -0.3%) and increased by 0.2% year-on-year (previous value: 0.3%) [2] - Food prices fell by 2.7% month-on-month, significantly impacting the CPI, with fresh vegetables and pork prices dropping by 13.2% and 3.4%, respectively [2] - The combined effect of fresh vegetables, pork, fresh fruits, and aquatic products accounted for approximately 0.46 percentage points of the CPI decline, representing about 80% of the total decrease [2] Group 2: PPI Trends - The PPI turned positive with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% (previous value: -0.1%) and a year-on-year decline of 2.5% (previous value: -2.9%) [2] - The recovery in durable consumer goods prices, which rose by 0.2%, was primarily driven by the "old-for-new" policy [2] - Infrastructure-related prices improved, with cement and steel prices rising due to accelerated project implementation [2] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - Non-food prices decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, influenced by the seasonal decline in travel and transportation during November [3] - The average daily flight volume for domestic routes fell by 6.25%, and urban rail transit passenger volume decreased by 2.2% [3] - Durable goods such as communication tools and automobiles saw price increases of 1.1% and 0.1%, respectively, due to rising component costs and new model releases [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - CPI is expected to maintain a moderate recovery trend, supported by improving tail effects and stable demand [2] - PPI's year-on-year decline is anticipated to continue narrowing, with policies aimed at boosting investment and consumer confidence expected to support industrial demand [2] - Risks include potential delays in policy implementation and slower-than-expected recovery in consumer confidence [2]