德意志银行-特斯拉-投资者会议要点

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Tesla Inc. with a price target raised from $295 to $370, reflecting a 25.4% increase in valuation due to greater value assigned to Tesla's autonomous driving efforts [3][29]. Core Insights - The report highlights key takeaways from investor meetings, focusing on Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) capabilities, robotaxi services, and new model launches planned for 2025 [4][5]. - Tesla is expected to launch a new model, referred to as "Model Q," in the first half of 2025, priced under $30,000, which is anticipated to drive volume growth of 20-30% in 2025 [4][5]. - The report emphasizes that Tesla's operational success in achieving high volume growth will depend on flawless execution and the ability to scale the supply chain, particularly in China [5]. Summary by Sections New Models and 2025 Volume Growth - Tesla plans to launch "Model Q" in 1H25, priced below $30,000, with additional new vehicles expected in the second half of 2025 to expand Tesla's Total Addressable Market (TAM) [4]. - Management projects a volume growth of 20-30% in 2025, contingent on maximizing existing capacity utilization [5]. 2025 Margins Considerations - The report notes that 2025 will involve product launches that may disrupt profitability due to initial inefficiencies in fixed cost absorption [7]. - However, this could be mitigated by lower costs of goods sold from more affordable products, with margins depending on the Average Selling Price (ASP) based on demand [7][8]. Robotaxi Operations - Tesla anticipates launching robotaxi services in California and Texas next year, utilizing existing vehicles and an internally developed ride-hailing app [12]. - Regulatory challenges are identified as a significant headwind for broad deployment, with management aiming to start with a company-owned fleet [13]. Competition in Autonomous Driving - Tesla perceives minimal competition in the US and Europe regarding cost and scale, contrasting its data generation capabilities with competitors like Waymo [21][23]. - The report discusses the challenges faced by competitors in scaling their operations and the regulatory landscape in Europe that complicates autonomous driving deployment [23]. Evolution of Optimus - Tesla aims to deploy over 1,000 humanoid robots in factories by 2026, with a focus on basic material handling tasks [24]. - The report outlines the strategy for manufacturing and selling the robots, emphasizing favorable economics in replacing human labor [25]. Other Considerations - Demand for Tesla's Megapack is projected to grow over 100% this year, with expectations of significant production increases from new facilities [28]. - The report mentions ongoing legal challenges regarding executive compensation, which Tesla plans to appeal [28].