中美互联网的平行时空：割裂与摩擦——当前时点，如何选择？

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Overweight" rating for the internet industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the divergence between the Chinese and American internet sectors, which are evolving into two distinct parallel worlds due to geopolitical tensions, with ongoing fragmentation and localized friction [1][28]. - Investment opportunities in the Chinese internet sector are primarily driven by policy-induced valuation recovery, while the American internet sector relies more on AI-driven performance [22][28]. - The report emphasizes that AI remains a key investment focus for 2025, with expectations of a global explosion in AI applications, potentially leading to a bullish market in the U.S. [1][22]. Summary by Sections Current State of U.S.-China Internet - Year-to-date, the Chinese and U.S. internet indices have increased by 16% and 36%, respectively, with the Chinese sector showing greater volatility [8][14]. - The Chinese internet sector has seen a significant recovery due to government stimulus policies, with a notable 40% increase in stock prices over a two-week period in late September 2024 [8][14]. AI Strategic Direction - U.S. internet companies are investing more aggressively in AI, with a focus on infrastructure, while Chinese firms are more conservative, preferring to use cash for dividends and buybacks [35][42]. - In 2023, China's total AI market investment was only about 12% of that in the U.S. [35]. Globalization Layout - U.S. internet giants derive approximately 50% of their revenue from overseas, while Chinese companies are accelerating their international expansion, with overseas revenue generally below 20% [55][62]. - The report notes that geopolitical risks, particularly under the Trump 2.0 scenario, may complicate the international strategies of Chinese firms [62]. Short Video Market Dynamics - The short video boom in China has led to the emergence of major players like ByteDance, significantly impacting traditional internet giants [65]. - In the U.S., the short video market is still developing, with TikTok facing restrictions, while platforms like Instagram and YouTube are adapting to capture market share [65]. Major Sector Growth Comparisons - The global digital advertising market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 15.5%, reaching $1.1 trillion by 2030, with Google and Meta holding a combined 48% market share [69]. - The Chinese digital advertising market is expected to grow at a rate of 10% from 2023 to 2025, with Alibaba and ByteDance each capturing about 25% of the market [72]. E-commerce Sector Insights - The U.S. e-commerce market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 9% from 2024 to 2029, with Amazon leading at a 37.6% market share [75]. - In China, the online retail sales of physical goods reached 10.33 trillion yuan in the first ten months of 2024, growing by 8.3% year-on-year [79].