海外宏观周报（2024年第41期）：就业数据反复，美联储接近降息

Employment Data Insights - November non-farm employment increased by 227,000, with October revised up from 12,000 to 36,000, and September from 223,000 to 255,000, totaling an upward revision of 56,000[9] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.24% from 4.14%, with permanent unemployment increasing by 58,000[11][28] - The labor market gap was calculated at 761,000, indicating a tightening labor market despite the rise in unemployment[10][21] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December increased to 86% due to rising unemployment rates[9] - If November inflation data aligns with expectations, a rate cut in December is likely, but cuts may pause in Q1 2025[14] Sector Performance - Durable goods manufacturing added 26,000 jobs, reflecting a recovery post-strike, while non-durable goods and retail sectors showed weakness[10][24] - Service sectors such as accommodation, food services, and healthcare remained strong, but wholesale and retail sectors weakened[10] Key Economic Indicators - The average hourly wage growth remained stable at 4.0% year-on-year, while weekly wage growth decreased to 3.7%[30] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI rose to 48.4, while the services PMI fell to 52.1, indicating mixed economic signals[30] Global Economic Context - Eurozone Q3 GDP growth was revised to 0.4%, with net exports negatively impacting growth[36] - Japan's household consumption declined, but the composite PMI rose above 50, indicating potential recovery[30]