DEPPON(603056) 申万宏源·2024-12-10 01:36Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Overweight" rating for Deppon Logistics (603056) [5][10] Core Views - Deppon Logistics is a leading high-end freight company in China, with significant changes brought by JD's investment in 2022 [3] - The high-end freight market has stabilized, with a duopoly formed by SF Express and JD Logistics [3] - The freight industry is driven by four major demand factors, including policy support, e-commerce penetration, high-end manufacturing growth, and supply chain flexibility [4] - Deppon's core competitive barriers are built on service quality and network coverage, with future integration with JD Logistics expected to enhance its capabilities [4] Company Overview - Deppon Logistics has over 20 years of experience in the freight industry, focusing on the mid-to-high-end market [29] - JD completed its acquisition of Deppon in 2022, becoming the largest shareholder and bringing significant changes to the company's management and strategic direction [35] - The company's revenue has been steadily increasing, driven by its high-end freight and large parcel delivery services [42] Industry Analysis - The freight industry in China is currently in a consolidation phase, with room for increased concentration [63] - The high-end freight market is dominated by SF Express and JD Logistics, with stable competition and limited price wars [87] - The freight industry is driven by diverse demand sources, including manufacturing recovery, e-commerce growth, and supply chain upgrades [94] Competitive Advantages - Deppon's service quality and network coverage are its core competitive advantages, supported by talent, management systems, employee incentives, and R&D investments [113] - The integration with JD Logistics is expected to enhance Deppon's logistics capabilities, expand its customer base, and improve economies of scale [135] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 842 million, 1.016 billion, and 1.209 billion yuan in 2024E-2026E, with year-on-year growth of 13.0%, 20.6%, and 19.0%, respectively [5][10] - The PE ratios for 2024E-2026E are projected at 18x, 15x, and 12x, with a target PE of 20x for 2024E, indicating a 16% upside potential [5][10]