12月中央政治局会议解读：宏观政策再加码，银行基本面积极因素积累

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook for bank stock performance relative to the benchmark index [5]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic policy is expected to be upgraded, supporting bank credit growth. Although bank interest margins (NIM) will face pressure, the optimization of funding costs is anticipated to provide support [5]. - The meeting on December 9 highlighted the implementation of more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, which are expected to improve the banking operating environment [3][4]. - The potential increase in local government special bond quotas is projected to be around 4.5 trillion yuan, with an estimated 1.26 trillion yuan in incremental credit being leveraged [3]. - The monetary policy is shifting towards a more accommodative stance, with expectations of interest rate cuts in 2025, which may impact bank interest margins negatively but will be countered by measures such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and adjustments in deposit rates [4]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Policy - The central government plans to enhance fiscal and monetary policies, focusing on boosting consumption and investment efficiency to expand domestic demand [3]. - The anticipated issuance of long-term special bonds aims to support new infrastructure and consumption initiatives [3]. Banking Sector Outlook - The banking sector is expected to benefit from improved asset quality and risk expectations due to the government's focus on preventing systemic risks and stabilizing the real estate market [4]. - The report notes that the sales decline of major real estate companies has narrowed, indicating potential stabilization in the sector [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific banks for investment, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398), China Construction Bank (601939), Postal Savings Bank of China (601658), Jiangsu Bank (600919), and Changshu Bank (601128) [5].