钢铁行业：钢价震荡回升，政策预期有望向好

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Maintain Recommendation" [5] Core Insights - The steel price has shown a slight rebound, with domestic steel market prices increasing and iron ore import prices also rising. The average price of rebar is 3,475.4 CNY/ton, up 1.15% from last week [2][53] - A significant reduction in steel inventory has been observed, with rebar social inventory down 15.62% year-on-year [2][82] - The steel and real estate industries have announced a cooperation statement to promote low-carbon steel applications, indicating a shift towards low-carbon steel in the market [3][41] Weekly Market Performance - The steel sector index increased by 5.61% this week, outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 2.33% [2][32] - All three sub-sectors of steel (plate, pipe, and special steel) experienced gains, with plate up 7.28%, pipe up 5.04%, and special steel up 3.18% [2][34] Price Analysis - Domestic steel prices have slightly increased, with rebar averaging 3,475.4 CNY/ton, line pipe at 3,735.0 CNY/ton, and hot-rolled plate at 3,630.2 CNY/ton [2][53] - Iron ore import prices also saw a rise, with the Platts iron ore price index averaging 105.6 USD/ton, up 1.61% from last week [2][69] Supply and Inventory Trends - The average operating rate of blast furnaces is 81.45%, showing a slight decrease [2][75] - Significant destocking in the steel market was noted, with various steel products showing year-on-year inventory reductions [2][82] Profitability Analysis - The profitability of various steel products has improved, with rebar margins increasing by 53 CNY/ton to approximately -18 CNY/ton [2][95] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the ordinary steel sector that may benefit from favorable policies and improving fundamentals in the special steel sector [3][120]