非酒类食品饮料月度专题：复盘日本包装水的量价逻辑与竞争格局

Industry Investment Rating - The food and beverage industry maintains a "Recommended" rating [5] Core Views - The report focuses on the competitive landscape of the packaged water industry, drawing insights from Japan's market experience [2] - Long-term growth potential for China's packaged water industry is driven by factors such as smaller household sizes, increased outdoor activities, and heightened consumer awareness of water safety [3] - Short-term competition in the packaged water sector is expected to ease, with mainstream product prices continuing to rise in Q4 2024 [3] Japan's Packaged Water Market Analysis Market Size and Growth Drivers - Japan's packaged water market grew at a CAGR of 9.2% from 1993 to 2023, driven by health awareness, water safety concerns, and policy changes allowing RTD beverage packaging [2] - The market size reached 421.2 billion yen in 2023, with a CAGR of 8.6% over 30 years, significantly outpacing Japan's GDP growth [16] - Packaged water's share of the soft drink market increased from 1.3% in 1993 to 9.5% in 2023, making it the third-largest category after coffee and tea beverages [16] Price Trends - The average price of packaged water in Japan declined slightly, with a CAGR of -0.5% from 1993 to 2023, influenced by macroeconomic conditions and industry-specific factors [30] - Price fluctuations were observed in three periods: 1993-1997, 2005-2010, and 2018, with the latter seeing a 10.9% year-on-year decline [50] Competitive Landscape - Market concentration increased, with top players like Suntory and Coca-Cola benefiting from scale and distribution advantages [41] - Suntory maintained its market leadership by focusing on its main brand, Tennensui, while other players like Kirin and Asahi experienced market share declines due to brand transitions [44] - The industry experienced two major price wars (2005-2010 and 2018), with leading companies showing stronger resilience [50] Domestic Implications for China - China's packaged water industry has significant long-term growth potential, with leading brands expected to maintain their market positions despite short-term competitive pressures [59] - Short-term competition is easing, with mainstream product prices rebounding in Q4 2024, and further improvements expected after the 2025 Spring Festival [59] Cost Trends - Packaging material costs declined in November 2024, with PET, cardboard, glass, and film prices down by 10.4%, 5.3%, 30.1%, and 3.2% year-on-year, respectively [3] - Raw material costs for mass-market products also decreased, with sugar, flour, quail eggs, and soybean prices down by 12.5%, 2.9%, 5.2%, and 19.3%, respectively [3] - However, palm oil and pork prices increased by 40.6% and 15.2% year-on-year [3] Market Performance - The food and beverage index rose by 2.4% in November 2024, ranking 8th among 31 sub-sectors [4] - Non-alcoholic beverage sub-sectors, including baked goods, snacks, and pre-processed foods, saw the highest monthly gains at 8.1%, 6.3%, and 3.3%, respectively [4] Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors with strong cyclical recovery potential, favorable valuations, and competitive advantages, such as B-end condiments and catering supply chains, with key companies including Haitian Flavoring, Anjoy Foods, and Baoli Foods [95] - C-end sectors with resilient performance and clear long-term industry logic, such as snacks and beverages, are also recommended, with key companies including Dongpeng Beverage, Three Squirrels, and Huaren Beverage [95] - Sectors showing marginal improvement in Q3 earnings and potential for long-term industry cycle reversal, such as dairy, are also worth attention, with key companies including Yili and New Hope Dairy [95]