海外深度：2024年海外市场回顾与2025年展望

Global Market Performance - As of November 29, 2024, the Nasdaq index increased by 28.02%, the S&P 500 rose by 26.47%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed by 19.16%[2] - In Europe, the DAX index grew by 17.16%, the FTSE 100 increased by 7.16%, while the CAC40 index fell by 4.08%[2] - In Asia, the Nikkei 225 rose by 15.096%, the Hang Seng Index increased by 13.94%, and the Korean Composite Index decreased by 7.51%[2] US Market Outlook - The US stock market is expected to be influenced by Trump's 2.0 policies post-election, particularly tax cuts and deregulation, which could enhance corporate profitability[3] - Current valuations in the US market are relatively high, with the Dow Jones P/E ratio at 32.88 and the Nasdaq at 45.01, indicating potential market pressure if inflation rises unexpectedly[3][28] Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index increased by 13.94% and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 15.65% as of November 29, 2024, supported by China's economic recovery and favorable government policies[49] - The Hang Seng Index's P/E ratio stands at 9.04, suggesting a reasonable valuation compared to historical levels[59] Risks and Uncertainties - The global market faces uncertainties from trade protectionism, geopolitical tensions, and high levels of public and corporate debt, with global public debt expected to exceed $100 trillion in 2024[20][23] - The potential for inflationary pressures due to fiscal expansion under Trump's administration could lead to tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, impacting corporate financing costs[3][42]