2024年12月政治局会议解读：定调“积极”：暖风继续！

Economic Outlook - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on December 9, 2024, to analyze the economic work for 2025, emphasizing a "positive" direction for the economy[6] - The meeting noted that the overall economic operation is stable and progressing, with significant improvements in various economic indicators since October, including a recovery in manufacturing PMI and durable goods consumption[6] Policy Direction - The meeting reiterated the principle of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" and proposed a more proactive macroeconomic policy for 2025, focusing on high-quality development and deepening reforms[7] - "Extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments" were introduced, indicating a shift from traditional growth stabilization tools to more innovative measures[7] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - A more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy were emphasized, with expectations for an increase in the deficit ratio to around 3.5-4.0%[8] - Structural monetary policies are expected to continue, with potential adjustments to the reserve requirement ratio by 25-50 basis points to support liquidity[8] Domestic Demand Expansion - The meeting highlighted the need to boost consumption and improve investment efficiency, with a stronger focus on expanding domestic demand compared to previous meetings[10] - Policies such as the "old-for-new" consumption initiative are anticipated to gain further momentum in 2025[10] Real Estate and Stock Market Stability - The meeting explicitly stated the importance of stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, reflecting a proactive stance on these sectors[11] - Recent policies have shown improvements in real estate sales, particularly in the second-hand housing market, indicating a focus on stabilizing expectations[11]