2025年光储行业年度策略报告：全球布局正当时，光储行业拐点将至

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the photovoltaic (PV) and energy storage industry, highlighting key investment opportunities and trends for 2025 [2][3] Core Views - The PV industry is at the bottom of its cycle, with global capacity layout being timely [6] - The energy storage industry is experiencing clear growth, with the inverter segment being particularly strong [14] - Four major trends are expected in 2025: 1) significant growth in PV-storage integration projects, 2) the Middle East becoming a key overseas market, 3) BC battery technology entering mass production, and 4) grid-forming energy storage gaining traction [3] Photovoltaic Industry Analysis Industry Bottom and Global Layout - The PV industry is at a profit bottom, with supply and demand expected to improve [7] - Global trade policies are tightening, prompting companies to actively expand capacity in the Middle East and the US [10] - PV demand growth is sluggish, with China's new installations expected to grow by 8%-10% in 2024-2025 [30] - The industry is experiencing a cash loss across the entire supply chain, with capital expenditure fluctuating downward [9] - Global trade tensions, particularly the US anti-dumping and countervailing investigations in Southeast Asia, are impacting PV exports [12] Market Trends and Regional Focus - The Middle East and the US are becoming key regions for PV capacity expansion [13] - The Middle East market, particularly Saudi Arabia, is showing significant growth due to strong policy support [50][111] - US trade policies are driving companies to establish local manufacturing to avoid tariffs [53] Energy Storage Industry Analysis Growth Drivers and Market Trends - Energy storage demand is growing rapidly, driven by renewable energy installations and declining system costs [18] - Independent energy storage is performing well, with grid-side storage dominating the market [71] - The cost of energy storage systems continues to decline, accelerating the construction of new power systems [82] - Global energy storage demand is expected to grow significantly, with China and the US leading the way [93] Inverter Segment - The inverter segment is relatively profitable, with Chinese companies dominating the global market [102] - Global PV inverter shipments increased by 56% in 2023, with Huawei and Sungrow leading the market [102] Key Trends for 2025 PV-Storage Integration - PV-storage integration projects are expected to grow significantly, driven by declining costs and increasing system economics [3][106] Middle East Market - The Middle East is becoming a key overseas market for PV and energy storage, with strong policy support and growing demand [3][110] BC Battery Technology - 2025 is expected to be the first year of mass production for BC battery technology, with companies like LONGi and Aiko leading the way [117][121] Grid-Forming Energy Storage - Grid-forming energy storage is seen as essential for new power systems, with significant growth potential in China and globally [124] Investment Recommendations - Focus on PV-storage integration leaders like Sungrow and Canadian Solar [3] - Invest in global leaders with capacity in the Middle East and the US, such as JinkoSolar and Trina Solar [3] - Consider BC battery leaders like LONGi and Aiko, which are expected to benefit from premium pricing [3]