Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a positive outlook on the securities industry, driven by policy support and improving market conditions [3][4] Core Views - The securities sector is expected to see comprehensive improvement across all business lines in 2025, with wealth management, investment banking, and proprietary trading being key growth areas [4][5] - Policy reforms, including the new "National Nine Articles," aim to enhance the capital market's role in serving national strategies and economic development [4][63] - Industry consolidation is accelerating, with mergers and acquisitions expected to remain active in 2025, particularly among leading and regional securities firms [4][80] Market Review - The securities sector outperformed the broader market in 2024, with the non-bank financial sector leading the gains, driven by policy tailwinds and improving investor sentiment [39][42] - Trading activity surged in 2024, with average daily trading volume reaching 1,197.9 billion yuan in October, a 120.38% year-on-year increase [45][46] - Revenue and net profit of listed securities firms declined slightly in the first three quarters of 2024, but showed significant quarter-on-quarter improvement, with proprietary trading being the largest revenue contributor [49][50] Policy Analysis and Outlook - The new "National Nine Articles" emphasize the strategic importance of the capital market, focusing on long-term systemic reforms to enhance market stability and functionality [63][66] - Policies are expected to encourage innovation in securities firms' business models, particularly in wealth management and investment banking, while strengthening regulatory oversight [67][70] - The government is actively promoting the entry of long-term capital into the market, with measures such as tax cuts and reduced financing costs to boost investor confidence [64][65] Industry Competition and Outlook - Performance divergence among securities firms is evident, with leading firms benefiting from investment banking and asset management, while smaller firms rely on proprietary trading for growth [72][73] - Industry concentration is increasing, with the top 5 firms accounting for 40.89% of total revenue and 48.37% of net profit in the first three quarters of 2024 [75][76] - Mergers and acquisitions are expected to accelerate, with leading firms leveraging their capital strength for expansion, while smaller firms focus on regional and niche market opportunities [80][82] Business Trends - Wealth management is becoming a key growth driver, with ETF products and investment advisory services gaining traction as investors seek diversified and low-cost investment options [88][89] - Investment banking is shifting focus towards supporting high-tech and emerging industries, with policy reforms driving demand for specialized and comprehensive financial services [99][108] - Proprietary trading is expected to remain a major revenue source, with regulatory measures ensuring stable and standardized development of the business [4][50]
证券行业2025年度策略：改革深化续新章，券商业绩待春华
国开证券·2024-12-10 12:55