1-11月进出口数据点评：“抢出口”有望支撑年底出口增速表现

Trade Data Summary - From January to November 2023, China's exports increased by 5.4% year-on-year, with a trade surplus of $884.67 billion[1] - In November 2023, exports grew by 6.7% year-on-year, but the growth rate slowed down by 6.0 percentage points compared to the previous month[1] - Imports during the same period rose by 1.2%, with a notable decline of 3.9% in November[1] Key Trade Partners - In November, trade with ASEAN reached $87.32 billion, accounting for 16.6% of total trade, with exports to ASEAN increasing by 14.9%[1] - Exports to the EU rose by 7.2%, while imports fell by 6.6% in November, with total trade amounting to $62.76 billion[1] - Trade with the US totaled $59.73 billion, with exports increasing by 8.0% and imports declining by 11.2%[1] Industry Performance - The automotive supply chain and electromechanical products showed strong export performance, with automotive exports growing by 5.8% year-on-year from January to November[1] - High-tech products like integrated circuits and automatic data processing equipment saw export growth rates of 18.8% and 9.9%, respectively[1] Economic Outlook - The US policy environment in 2024 is expected to be uncertain, with potential tariffs impacting exports to the US[1] - The Federal Reserve may maintain a slightly tight monetary policy, which could affect overseas demand for Chinese products[1] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected resilience in inflation among major economies and increasing geopolitical uncertainties[1]