11月贸易数据点评：出口高位回落，进口超预期放缓

Group 1: Export Data Analysis - In November, China's exports (in USD) grew by 6.7% year-on-year, significantly lower than the market expectation of 8.7% and down from the previous month's growth of 12.7%[4] - The month-on-month export value increased by 1.1%, which is below the seasonal average of approximately 6.4% over the past decade[6] - Exports to major trading partners showed a decline, with ASEAN exports growing by 14.9% (down 0.9 percentage points), US exports increasing by 8.0% (down 0.1 percentage points), and EU exports rising by 7.2% (down 5.5 percentage points) compared to the previous month[11] Group 2: Import Data Analysis - In November, China's imports fell by 3.9% year-on-year, contrary to market expectations of a 0.6% increase, and down from a previous decline of 2.3%[4] - The month-on-month import value showed a slight increase of 0.8%, which is significantly weaker than seasonal trends[19] - Key imports such as iron ore and crude oil faced declines, with iron ore imports down 19.6% in value despite a 14.3% increase in quantity, indicating price pressures[22] Group 3: Trade Balance and Economic Implications - China's trade surplus in November was $97.44 billion, exceeding market expectations of $92.1 billion and up from $95.72 billion in the previous month[4] - The report highlights the increasing importance of domestic demand as external uncertainties rise, emphasizing the need for policies to stimulate domestic consumption[25] - The overall economic outlook suggests that while external demand shows resilience, domestic demand recovery remains crucial for sustained growth[25]