彭博：中国将召开年度经济会议讨论刺激政策 - 副本

Investment Rating - The report indicates a potential for a supportive policy environment for the industry, with expectations of a growth target around 5% for 2025, which may stabilize market expectations [3][4]. Core Insights - The upcoming annual economic work conference in China is expected to discuss more supportive policies for 2025, particularly in response to external pressures such as the US-China trade tensions [1][3]. - Analysts predict that the government may set a higher budget deficit target, potentially up to 4% of GDP, to allow for increased borrowing to support the economy [4]. - There is a focus on prioritizing domestic demand and the real estate market, with current stimulus measures primarily targeting producers and infrastructure [3][4]. Summary by Sections Economic Policy Discussion - The central economic work conference will outline the policy agenda for 2025, with a commitment to "moderately loose" monetary policy and "more proactive" fiscal tools [1][3]. - The specific growth target for 2025 will be announced in March, but expectations are set around 5% [3][4]. Government Spending and Economic Support - Actual spending growth has been only 1% this year, compared to an expected 3% [2]. - Increased policy support is anticipated in light of potential US tariff increases, with a focus on consumer-oriented policies [3][4]. Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Economists expect that if external risks materialize, additional support measures may be introduced, with policy directions likely to remain similar to those of 2024 [4]. - Recent meetings with international financial institutions have reinforced confidence in achieving the 2024 growth target, despite concerns over US-China relations [5].